The Need For Artificial Intelligence: Increasing Global And Human Complexity 

Tom Campbell • December 4, 2017
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Beyond “The Good Old Days”

Some people like to reminisce. They wish they could return to a less complex world without the unending stream of news, email and social media. They preferred life when there were fewer people, less traffic, and cheaper groceries. They miss when there was no constant threat of terrorism. They want to return to “the good old days.”

Despite this desire to return to supposedly simpler times, we cannot turn back. Our world is vastly different now compared to even a few decades ago. Because of phenomenal advances in medicine, housing, transportation and many other areas, Earth now supports a population of over seven billion people. It is estimated that by 2030, global population will reach 8.6 billion. [1] Sustaining such numbers demands strong interconnectedness and reliable communications. Unfortunately, more people also create increasing pressures on resources: water, energy, food, rare earth metals – all are more difficult to acquire.

Moreover, we are living in a veritable data explosion. In 2012, the amount of information generated over the internet doubled roughly every 1.25 years; [2] it is assuredly even faster now. Every day now we create 2.5 quintillion bytes of new data. [3] This data tsunami tasks our local and federal governments in gathering data, comprehending it, and crafting sound policies.

Additionally, societal changes will further intensify with development and deployment of new technologies. Fundamentally, we have taken evolution into our own hands. [4] We now live far longer than the average lifespan of roughly 40 years only a century ago. The on-going merger of man and machine (biological and digital) opens new vistas for us in knowledge and entertainment, but it also further amplifies the needs for information recording and processing.

The only way we can survive and thrive in this constantly changing and increasingly complex world is to get assistance from our machine creations. Artificial intelligence (AI) must be a core aspect of that help, as it offers unprecedented capabilities to monitor, control and assess a wide range of situations. AI will not (at least in the near term) remove the human from the loop; instead, it will augment our capacities for better data collection, analysis and decision making.

Increasingly Complex World

“Indeed, developments over the ensuing quarter century have revealed a far more complex reality, one of much less international consensus on what constitutes legitimacy in principles, policies, and process and not much in the way of a balance of power in practice. This more uneven, complex world has been quite disorderly, a conclusion that emerges clearly through an examination of the major historical events of this period, the gap between global challenges and responses, and regional developments.”

--RICHARD HAASS, A World In Disarray: American Foreign Policy and the Crisis of the Old Order


From early 2015 to late 2017, I had the honor and privilege to serve as the first National Intelligence Officer for Technology (NIO-TECH) within the National Intelligence Council (NIC) of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI). As NIO-TECH, I had the opportunity to contribute to the Global Trends: Paradox of Progress [5] publication that was submitted to the incoming Administration on January 2017. In this well-researched report, the NIC laid out how economic, political, social, technological and cultural forces collide and might affect our future out to 2037.

The core theme to this recent Global Trends is how there exists a paradox in our progress as we have developed our world:

"We are living a paradox: The achievements of the industrial and information ages are shaping a world to come that is both more dangerous and richer with opportunity than ever before. Whether promise or peril prevails will turn on the choices of humankind. The progress of the past decades is historic—connecting people, empowering individuals, groups, and states, and lifting a billion people out of poverty in the process. But this same progress also spawned shocks like the Arab Spring, the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, and the global rise of populist, anti-establishment politics. These shocks reveal how fragile the achievements have been, underscoring deep shifts in the global landscape that portend a dark and difficult near future." [6]

There are no easy solutions for the issues created by such complexity, but there is a growing realization that better data analysis can help. For example, it is estimated that 99% of the data in the Department of Defense is not analyzed but lies ‘dark,’ awaiting the right analyst or algorithm. [7] An initial push within the Pentagon to tackle this issue is to leverage AI to analyze imagery, thus turning “…the countless hours of aerial video surveillance collected by the U.S. military into actionable intelligence.” [8] For all the reasons listed above, AI analysis is no longer a luxury, but an imperative.

Other countries recognize the commercial and military leverages that AI can provide. China has a major push for AI, with some fearing it will overtake the United States in AI leadership in coming years. [9] [10] In a speech to school children, Russia’s Vladimir Putin recently stated, “Artificial intelligence is the future, not only for Russia, but for all humankind. It comes with colossal opportunities, but also threats that are difficult to predict. Whoever becomes the leader in this sphere will become the ruler of the world.” [11] Canada, Switzerland, Germany and others have major AI initiatives planned or already funded.

AI is seeping into politics, also. New Zealand just deployed the world’s first “AI politician.” [12] Named SAM, the AI bot answers a range of questions on policies for housing, education and immigration. Its creator, Nick Gerritsen, has high hopes for its future. “By late 2020, when New Zealand has its next general election, Gerritsen believes SAM will be advanced enough to run as a candidate. However, it is not legal for AI to contest elections.” There is speculation in technology circles about whether an AI could be a good President of the United States (POTUS). [13]

Overall, we recognize that governance and policies can benefit from AI. Part of that realization may stem from an acknowledgement of our own limitations.


Increasingly Complex Humans

“Evolution is like walking on a rolling barrel. The walker isn't so much interested in where the barrel is going as he is in keeping on top of it.”

--ROBERT FROST, The Letters of Robert Frost to Louis Untermeyer


Nature is a poor project manager. In engineering firms, when there is a big goal there is often brought into the team an expert in planning and operational execution to guide the team toward reaching that goal. This project manager develops Gantt charts, milestones, objectives, and budget, R&D, personnel, and resource plans. Plans are presented to management and, if approved, given appropriate support. All-hands meetings are held, and splinter sub-groups are tasked with specific project actions to contribute to the overall team goal. If the goal is met, great! - the company rejoices in new profits and the team throws a party. If not, people re-group and fix the issues, or move on to other projects (and oftentimes point fingers to who is to blame for the failure).

Nature doesn’t work that way. If one assesses the basic physiology and anatomy of a human [14] today, one would want to fire nature’s project manager. We all carry in our bodies numerous anatomical features that can be considered hangers-on from evolution, the so-called human vestigiality. The appendix, the tail bone, tonsils and other body parts are either not fully required or superfluous to our fundamental operations. So why do we have them? It’s because of the chaotic path that evolution has taken over the millennia. Natural evolution is not project planned, it just happens.

Moreover, we suffer in cold, heat, vacuum and any environment that deviates even a smidgen from the narrow homeostasis [15] that our fragile bodies will allow. We contract cancer and sundries of other chronic diseases. If we are fortunate to live to 90 years old, our life expectancy is only a few years more, whether we are male or female. [16] We require glasses, surgeries, roofs over our heads, central heating in the winter and cooling in the summer, and constant food and drink. We must exercise or our muscles atrophy and our bones degrade. It takes us almost two decades to become independent adults, away from the nurturing environment of our parents.

But isn’t that what being human simply is - shouldn’t we just accept our evolutionary fate? Perhaps, but if so, why have we battled for millennia to overcome our ailments, increase our food supplies, purify our water, improve our hygiene to avoid killer germs, change our environment toward one more benign to our mammalian physiology, and ensure our children live better, longer lives than we do? By doing so, we have increased average lifespans from about 30 years to more than 80 years in some countries.

We might argue that this is purely the survival instinct that all animals possess, but Homo sapiens nowadays go way beyond mere survival. We have the tremendous advantage that we are big-brained and can plan. In a way, we don’t really live in the present, we live in the future as we constantly attempt to anticipate and acquire our next meal / degree / spouse / job / car / house / child / vacation / retirement. We manipulate our surroundings, health and very environment to bend all toward our desire of longer, healthier, and more productive and enjoyable lives.

Our capabilities are so far beyond what even the richest people in the world had available mere centuries ago, it boggles the mind. Years ago, I was touring a beautiful French castle in Loire Valley. After viewing a particularly impressive throne room, my then-manager turned to me and commented, “It was good to be king.” I replied that I’d rather be a commoner now, because we have many more opportunities for education, travel and entertainment; better healthcare; and more access to knowledge than even the wealthiest royalty back in the Middle Ages.

However, we have only just begun our manipulation of matter, environment and body. Our next steps will take us to whole new levels, which will require more than just human minds to comprehend and control our world.

For example, the Internet of Things – comprising devices both digital (e.g., smartphones) and biological (e.g., medical devices and biometric systems) - presents a fundamental challenge in data processing. With estimates of 24 billion ( BI Intelligence ) to 50 billion ( Cisco ) [17] devices connected to the internet by 2020, and over a trillion sensors complementing those devices, mankind is awash in data. How to make anything meaningful of that information for governments and companies is a grand challenge…one that will probably only be solved by advanced AI.

It seems every day in technology news, there is some new market sector embracing AI. Industries of medicine, insurance, finance, autonomous systems, home and personal assistants, and others are embedding AI into their fundamental operations. Why? Because we are limited in our biological processing systems – our three pound brains – in massive data memory and processing. AI can help us to absorb and process this tsunami of information.

Some visionary organizations are embracing this convergence of the biological and digital. In 2015, I had the opportunity to visit the J. Craig Venter Institute in San Diego, California. This institute has as a focus to leverage its earlier mapping of the human genome. [18] When they described how they have as a goal to acquire over one million genomes, I asked how they plan on extracting meaning from them. They answered, “We have a specially-coded AI that does that for us.” Thus, they and others are merging biotech with AI and big data analytics to de-obfuscate what to humans would be mountains of confusing data.

Advances in neurosciences will also accelerate the need for better analysis capabilities. In articles in WIRED, [19] Nature [20] and MIT Technology Review, [21] controls into and from our minds by external means are summarized. Electrodes are surgically implanted in the brain and a map of neuronal activity is attempted to be made. Using algorithmic inputs, those electrodes can stimulate the same neuronal activities in the subject’s mind, with the ultimate goal of developing a commercial neuro-prosthetic to enhance memories. Similarly, those maps can be used to play video games with no physical contact by the patient. Although highly experimental now (and requiring volunteers willing to undergo brain surgery!), several companies, including Neuralink , are researching brain caps that don’t require in-vivo surgeries. Of course, this research raises substantial ethical and other questions. A core unknown is how we would complement our abilities and enable ourselves to process these new data sets to / from our limited minds.

Need for AI

Humanity is at an impasse now. Governments and politicians are struggling to remain on top of a constantly growing set of threat vectors, mountains of data, and fundamental economic and governance issues. Moving well beyond nature’s evolution roadmap, we have created incredible powers of information acquisition, we live longer lives, and we have greater capabilities than our forefathers would have ever believed possible. Additional convergences of biological and digital systems will take us to even higher levels of capabilities, but also increase complexities in society and create even more need for analysis capabilities.

AI can assist us here. A vast and growing sector, AI – especially with deep learning - has the ability to process massive amounts of data, whether it be images, text, voice, numbers, etc. Numerous technology websites report on AI developments; for example, TechCrunch , CNET , Futurism , AINewsFeed. Visionary venture capital firms such as Bootstrap Labs focus on AI investments. [22]

There are daily reports of major advances by AI that go beyond what a human can accomplish. Art forgeries are detected with 99% accuracy from a single brush stroke. [23] Lip reading is done by an AI with greater accuracy than the best humans. [24] Skin cancer is detected by a deep learning trained AI algorithm with greater fidelity than dermatologists. [25] While still considered Narrow AI [26] , potential exists to expand these accomplishments into greater capabilities and thus to handle more complex problem sets. [27] Although progress to mimic a human in General AI [28] is slow presently, some researchers believe we have only begun to tap the full power of AI. [29]

The challenge before us is to develop AI quickly as our society increases in its economic, political, military and psychological challenges. We have a great future ahead of us, but only if we get help in unraveling the complexities of our modern world.

NOTES

[2] Dominic Basulto, “Why Ray Kurzweil’s predictions are right 86% of the time,” Big Think 2012, http://bigthink.com/endless-innovation/why-ray-kurzweils-predictions-are-right-86-of-the-time , accessed 3 DEC 2017.

[4] For an overview of this issue, see “Evolving Ourselves – Redesigning the Future of Humanity—One Gene at a Time,” Juan Enriquez, Steve Gullans, https://www.amazon.com/Evolving-Ourselves-Redesigning-Future-Humanity-One/dp/0143108344/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1511886396&sr=8-1&keywords=evolving+ourselves+juan+enriquez , accessed 4 DEC 2017.

[5] Global Trends: Paradox of Progress, January 2017, https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/nic/GT-Full-Report.pdf , accessed 10/17/17.

[6] Global Trends, ibid.

[14] Or really any living being.

[15] Imagine a graph with two horizontal bars delineating the band within which one can function, outside of which one becomes diseased or dies. This homeostatic band is narrow for organic beings, and becomes even more narrow if we are immune compromised.

[18] In which they were declared co-winners of the first genome mapping by President Bill Clinton. The other national effort was by the National Institute of Health (NIH).

[19] “Inside the race to hack the human brain,” https://www.wired.com/story/inside-the-race-to-build-a-brain-machine-interface/ , accessed November 21, 2017.

[20] “AI-controlled brain implants for mood disorders tested in people,” Sara Reardon, 22 NOV 2017, http://www.nature.com/news/ai-controlled-brain-implants-for-mood-disorders-tested-in-people-1.23031 , accessed 4 DEC 2017.

[22] The author is honored to be a special advisor to Bootstrap Labs, https://bootstraplabs.com/ , accessed 4 DEC 2017.

[26] Narrow AI is defined loosely as an AI that attempts to execute a single task better than a human.

[28] General AI is characterized as an AI that has full cognitive capabilities that can mimic a human.

Like what you read here? CONTACT FutureGrasp for further information, speaking engagements and/or collaborations.
Diplomacy turmoil in age of coronavirus

Diplomacy Turmoil During and Post-COVID19

By Thomas A. Campbell, Andrew Hyde, Geoffrey M. Odlum, Ariel Ahram • June 11, 2020
The coronavirus pandemic has utterly transformed international diplomacy. Statecraft has long been driven by face-to-face interactions that expand through informal mechanisms, such as body language, spontaneous conversations, and an understanding of the views of other actors beyond rote statements of positions. Such meetings are now difficult if not impossible in the era of social distancing and work from home mandates. Meetings postponed or canceled altogether have slowed a range of negotiations while many important international conferences have also been delayed or gone virtual. Cybersecurity risks have amplified as unsecure networks are leveraged for conversations that would have normally occurred face to face. Diplomats must find new ways to work in this pandemic era, as well as what the current turmoil in operations may mean post-COVID19. The practice of diplomacy has always been intertwined with state-of-the-art methods of information and communications technology (ICT). For example, telegraphy revolutionized the practices of diplomacy by accelerating the speed of communication between embassies and the metropole. The internet has had similar revolutionary impact on the practices of statecraft and diplomacy. Web-enabled ICT multiplied the number of voices and interests involved in international policymaking; complicated international decision-making; reduced exclusive control of States in the process; accelerated and freed the dissemination of information, accurate or not, about any issue or event; and enabled traditional diplomatic services to be delivered faster and more cost-effectively, both to ones’ own citizens and government, and to those of other countries. Following the development of social media, multiple government agencies are now avid posters on Twitter and other platforms in their attempts to shape public discourse at home and abroad. _________ TURN TO TURMOIL The novel coronavirus has imposed suddenly a full-court-press for diplomats to take to internet ICT, but accompanying this rapid change are new communications stresses and nuances. The functionalities and efficiencies of diplomatic ICT - including phone, email, social media messaging, and virtual meetings – are now routinely in question. The limitations of video-conferencing and other ICT-driven modes of communication have long been documented . U.S. Foreign Service Officers (FSOs) are specifically trained in face-to-face interactions and talking to groups. Exclusive reliance upon teleconference platforms such as Zoom and WebEx affect multiple core capabilities of the FSO. It is difficult to detect and project desired body language, thus introducing challenges in convincing foreign interlocutors to share private thoughts and intentions over a monitor. Negotiations are both enabled and constrained online, thus pushing the dialogue in sometimes unexpected directions. Reduced or no travel, fewer in-person meetings, and overall, limited personal interactions compromise statecraft. Video engagement changes how information and intelligence is collected, thus impacting institutional memory. Diplomatic activity and initiatives have slowed considerably as many major meetings and conferences have gone online, with others outright canceled. US Government agencies have suspended many pre-pandemic priorities and pivoted almost entirely to focusing now on coping with the virus. Security in the White House has increased with individuals working near POTUS being given daily coronavirus checks , thus self-limiting the frequency of high-level meetings. Intelligence officers at the CIA are working shifts , such as three days on followed by three days off, to improve social distancing by reducing the given number of people in buildings at any given time. In New York City, itself a pandemic epicenter, all aspects of life have been severely compromised for over a month now, detrimentally affecting United Nations Headquarters operations and activities. For example, COVID-19 has prompted changes in the working methods of the UN General Assembly : “Physical distancing and stay-at-home restrictions mean representatives can no longer meet in person, including to vote on resolutions, which are now circulated under a process known as ‘silence procedure.’ Ambassadors are given a 72-hour window to consult their capitals. If they all agree on a resolution, it is passed. If not, the resolution is not adopted as the ‘silence’ has been broken.” Webinars and online meetings are the new norm, but they impact the large-scale and often slow-moving collaborative work of drafting and editing of diplomatic agreements and statements. These processes now often involve dozens of people all working remotely using a "track changes" mode of interaction. But direct contact and interaction often undergird these collaborations, as interlocutors know each other and can converse face to face before they move into the web environment. Going straight to the web without initial constructive in-person discussions in the best case merely compromises the speed of production; in the worst case it stymies it entirely. Cybersecurity risks increase when executing all diplomacy online. A singular reliance on ICT raises new questions about the reliability and vulnerability of networks to disruption or espionage; unpreparedness opens new cyber-attack vectors for hackers, both amateurs and State-sponsored professionals. Governments may not have the requisite cyberinfrastructure and trained employees to seamlessly continue diplomacy operations from home offices. Sharing of sensitive documents either cannot be done at all, or only in a limited manner. Diplomatic online sessions can be recorded and played back with deep analyses of verbatim words and body language – normally hurried notes taking and brief summarizations are what constitute the record for face-to-face conversations. Since different organizations and different countries can adopt disparate and non-interoperable technological approaches, ICT compatibility confusion throws additional barriers at smooth statecraft. Some diplomats may avoid negotiations altogether because of security concerns, thus compromising statecraft progress in general. _____________ ACCESSING THE ADVANTAGE State engagements must continue apace regardless of the pandemic. Negotiations of peace, non-virus global health issues, human rights, climate change, nuclear nonproliferation, and trade all must occur, in whatever limited way. Embassies need to find ways to provide emergency consular services to visiting or expatriate citizens in need without putting diplomats at risk of infection. Diplomats face challenges in assessing emerging political, economic, and social trends when prevented from face-to-face meetings or travel around a country. National elections scheduled during this period of social distancing may take place without the confidence-building presence of foreign election observers, increasing potential for corrupt or anti-democratic practices to alter election outcomes. Diplomatic professionals will have to consider how the new online reality impacts their ability to advance their national interests, to understand rapidly shifting geopolitical events, and to reach publics overseas. Key is to understand how diplomacy morphs into a new normal in the coming months and years, and to identify means that diplomats and senior policymakers can prepare. Tactical challenges are to identify best ways of doing business and to implement them in real time during the pandemic. Strategic challenges are to consider how diplomacy following the pandemic might inalterably change, what new opportunities are present, and how to position diplomats accordingly. Advantages and opportunities exist in this new online reality, nevertheless. Frictionless meeting logistics with accompanying financial savings for internet-only engagements; increased opportunities to hear directly from key players; younger diplomats shining with their greater digital skills – all these and more are coming to light in the pandemic era. As stated by the United Nations’ Under-Secretary General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs, Rosemary DiCarlo , “Although we recognize that the limitations of the processes in which face-to-face meetings are restricted, the increased use of technology has the potential to create new opportunities [and] enhance the inclusivity of peace processes - for example, including the participation of women and young people.” Concomitant with this new reality is the increased potential to leverage big data, predictive analytics, and other digital technologies. Investments should be amplified in artificial intelligence (AI) to analyze all data that can be extracted on any given country, region, or topic. Predictive analytics using machine learning (and its subset, deep learning) can then be applied to offer novel insights for meeting preparedness and briefings to senior policymakers; such approaches offer new opportunities in optimized human-machine hybrid decision-making. AI can also be used to automatically assess treaty compliance, as well as to monitor and predict events before they occur . In-situ machine language translations and real-time content assessment for both verbal and written communiques are feasible now. Increased security of voting processes via blockchain holds great potential. Virtual reality avatars can be applied to replicate the feeling of sitting across a table from a counterpart. Ultimately, there is a wide range of technological applications and solutions that await adoption and deployment by forward-leaning diplomatic corps. However long the pandemic lasts, diplomacy has been forever changed. How diplomats respond to the recent step-change in personal interactions and resultant altered statecraft will dictate whether national objectives are met, whether treaties are negotiated, and whether normal operations return - or diplomacy turmoil continues. The opinions and characterizations in this piece are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the U.S. Government. Thomas A. Campbell, Ph.D. (tom.campbell@futuregrasp.com) is Founder & CEO of FutureGrasp, an advisory group that works with organizations globally to identify policy and business opportunities from emerging and disruptive technologies, especially artificial intelligence. Previously, he was the first National Intelligence Officer for Technology with the National Intelligence Council, Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI). Andrew Hyde (andrew.hyde@futuregrasp.com) is a Nonresident Fellow at the Stimson Center, a Washington, D.C. based think tank, with the Transforming Conflict and Governance Program, and a Senior Advisor with FutureGrasp. Previously, he was a Foreign Service Officer at the U.S. Department of State and a Congressional staffer. Geoffrey Odlum (geoffrey.odlum@futuregrasp.com) served as a Foreign Service Officer at the U.S. Department of State from 1989 to 2017. He is currently the President of Odlum Global Strategies, a national security and technology policy consulting firm, and is a Senior Advisor with FutureGrasp. Ariel I. Ahram, Ph.D. (ahram@vt.edu) is Associate Professor and Chair of Government and International Affairs (GIA) at the School of Public and International Affairs, Virginia Tech.

AI National Plans: Their Necessity and Core Components

By Thomas A. Campbell, Ph.D. • April 4, 2019
It is the position of FutureGrasp, LLC that every nation state should have an AI national plan. To remain economically competitive internally, as well as to facilitate collaboration across borders, it is imperative that governments recognize the need to channel whatever resources they possess to produce plans that enable strategic directions in the rapidly growing technology sector of AI.

Digital Twins and Digital Doubles: Populating our Virtual Worlds

By Tom Campbell, PhD; Founder & President; FutureGrasp, LLC • September 7, 2018
As we move into future years with more advanced compute and exponential data availability, there will be an inexorable push to simulate more of our world. Populating our digital worlds with digital twins and digital doubles will ultimately serve us greatly in our increasingly complex real worlds.

Terminator Conundrum: Perhaps a Middle Ground?

By Tom Campbell, PhD; Founder & President; FutureGrasp, LLC • August 10, 2018
It is often said that history repeats itself—we are seeing these same trends today with autonomous weapons.

Opportunities and Challenges from Artificial Intelligence for Law Enforcement

By Tom Campbell, PhD, Founder & President, FutureGrasp, LLC • July 20, 2018
We offer here a review of several facets of artificial intelligence (AI) that could benefit or compromise law enforcement (LE). As AI becomes more advanced, the potential for its application by LE experts (and criminals) will only increase. Let us hope that LE officers in the field and analysts in the office are able to leverage AI to protect people around the world.

Why Stop at Voice?

By Tom Campbell, Founder & President, FutureGrasp, LLC • June 19, 2018
Voice is all the buzz (no pun intended) in Silicon Valley. Many technology leaders (Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, etc.) are betting that verbal commands will soon be the major means of communication for our numerous devices. But is verbal chatter the terminal point for our computer communications?

Quantum Supremacy is Near

By Thomas A. Campbell, Ph.D., FutureGrasp, LLC • May 4, 2018
Quantum supremacy, the point at which a quantum computer exceeds the capabilities of any classical computer , is now near at hand. I explain why and what that means for computer science.

Next-Generation Compute Architectures Enabling Artificial Intelligence—Part II of II

By Thomas A. Campbell, Ph.D., FutureGrasp, LLC & Robert Meagley, Ph.D., nR, LLC; ONE Nanotechnologies LLC • February 8, 2018
We review the state of the art in advanced semiconductors as relevant to artificial intelligence (AI).

Next-Generation Compute Architectures Enabling Artificial Intelligence - Part I of II

By Thomas A. Campbell, PhD, FutureGrasp, LLC & Robert Meagley, PhD, nR, LLC • February 2, 2018
We review the state of the art in advanced compute architectures as relevant to artificial intelligence (AI).

Identifying the Next Big Thing: Qual vs. Quant

By Thomas A. Campbell, Ph.D., FutureGrasp, LLC & Matt Wolfe, Ph.D., Virginia Tech Applied Research Corporation (VT-ARC) • January 9, 2018
We review the challenges to qualitative forecasting of science and technology, and detail the advantages to taking a more quantitative approach using big data analytics and AI.
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